Red Sea crisis: Challenging Pax Americana by disrupting western energy supply chains

The United States is facing a unique challenge from Yemen’s Houthi rebels in the Red Sea. The preeminent maritime power is struggling to enforce its diktat in the critical energy supply route to Europe, which also depends upon West Asia for Brent Crude, which as per a February IEA Oil Market Report traded around USD 83/bbl and rose by USD 5/bbl

Pax Britannica to Pax Americana: Post-world war order now under strain

Pax Americana, among other things, also signifies the naval power to set navigation and merchant shipping rules in the deep seas. It replaced Pax Britannica after two great wars, almost 80 years ago, but now faces challenges from Russia, Iran, China, and North Korea. US Navy Fellow Marek Jestrab, in his Atlantic Council strategy paper, argues that Xi Jinping, in order to challenge US primacy in the Asia-Pacific, may go ahead with a maritime blockade of Taiwan by 2027 in order to cripple its sea ports and trade. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and Iran engaging with Israel through “proxies” and “strategic partners”, including Houthis, are steps in that direction. The Red Sea is connected to the Mediterranean Sea through the Suez Canal, the most potent shipping route to Europe from Asia for supplying oil and other commodities, and the Houthi disruptions could be seen in this context. 

Iran, Russia, and China, through Houthis, are being blamed for undermining Washington’s global influence in controlling energy supply chains, trade, and sea routes. Ariel Cohen, senior fellow and energy expert at the Atlantic Council, blames Iran for choking the Red Sea, which sees trade in the volume of USD 1 trillion annually, or 15 percent of global trade. The Forbes writer fears that the next flashpoint could be the Strait of Hormuz. The route controls 11 percent of total US crude imports and moves 30 million barrels of oil per day. 

The US Energy Information Administration estimates that Asian countries were the destination for 82% of the crude oil and condensate that moved through the Strait of Hormuz, world’s most important energy chokepoint. Besides oil trade, the conflict is also about controlling routes, which becomes critical to who could access and control the supply chains. During a war situation, the US naval forces backed by its air-craft carriers can execute a naval blockade on critical energy supplies, even as the US is now urging China to rein in Iran and Houthi rebels to secure Red Sea shipping routes, an indication of a new weak ability where the US is struggling to secure the route and enforce rules of commerce. 

Israel is critical to Pax Americana in the West Asian energy-rich region

Besides making Israel vulnerable, the larger goal of Houthi rebels is to disrupt world shipping chokepoints and energy supply routes largely controlled by the US and make navigation unsafe for its western allies. The US will need to put in place huge naval forces, boost its Bahrain-based Fifth Fleet, and deploy more aircraft carriers and destroyers to ensure the safety of its naval and oil vessels, which will lead to an investment of billions of dollars. The fleet oversees US security interests in the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Arabian Ocean, and parts of the Indian Ocean. 

Therefore, the survival of Israel is now critical to Pax Americana, as the Saudi Arabia-Iran deal, which positioned China as a global mediator, made US interests vulnerable in the energy-rich region, where Beijing has pumped billions under Belt and Road initiative. 

Yemen’s Houthi rebels have been attacking ships linked to Israel, the US, and its western allies in the deep waters to protest Tel Aviv’s disproportionate aggression in the Gaza Strip, where the IDF killed more than 30,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, after a Hamas cross-border raid on October 7 killed 1,200 Israelis. Washington is turning a blind eye to the Gaza bloodbath, as Israel is now the only reliable ally of the US left in West Asia that ensures the survival of Pax Americana. 

Political economy of the Houthi onslaught 

Therefore, well-trained Houthi rebels, armed with drones, missiles, and anti-ship missiles, are no ordinary rebel force; in fact, they have larger geo-political goals with alleged support from Iran and China and have been disrupting the supply chains of many western and European companies, causing billions of dollars in losses to western energy, auto, and manufacturing giants by forcing them to take a longer route around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope. Energy giants like Chevron have been working closely with the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet to supply crude, and its CEO was quoted as saying that in the event of new escalations, major supply disruptions may take place. The February IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) says that the West Asia crisis contributed to an upward momentum as supply lines to the global market were disrupted due to vessels avoiding the Red Sea, leading to Brent crude futures trading at USD83/bbl, having increased by USD5/bbl.

‘Breakdown of US-backed international order’, as European allies prefer to go solo!

Writing his piece ‘China is winning the battle for the Red Sea, America has retired as a world policeman’, Nathan Levine from the Centre of China Analysis wrote in a British portal that the US was struggling to cobble a coalition of allies for “Operation Prosperity Guardian” to secure sea lanes for ships. America’s close allies—France, Italy, and Spain—refused to participate under US command, and from West Asia, only Bahrain agreed to join. Allies preferring to go solo and providing security to their ships under their own flags may be an indication of the breakdown of the international order that the United States was able to impose on allies and foes, despite maintaining world’s most powerful naval force. 

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