Politics of memory

Today the third year of Russian unprovoked full scale military invasion of Ukraine commenced. One should remember, that Russian aggression started 10 years ago, in 2014 with occupation of Crimea and Donbas. Ukrainians have never chosen war, it was imposed by Russia. So we continue defending our homeland, its freedom, democracy and sovereignty.  

Our goal is the same – Ukraine’s victory over pure evil. Our partners continue their valuable unwavering support, the time will come and we will prevail. We will restore Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity within internationally recognised borders. Russia will pay for its barbarism, because this is fair and we are on the right side of the history.

According to classic definition, the politics of history is a method of political influence on historical studies, used by the totalitarian state as propaganda to impose a certain version of history in order to eliminate competing points of view on the past. That is why all pseudohistorical Putin’s retrospectives to justify aggression are only piffling forms of such policy. But political realities which he likes to appeal to are absolutely different. 

Russia was among the first to recognize independence of Ukraine in its existing borders on the 5th of December 1991. In December 1994 after Ukraine renounced possession of nuclear weapons, Russia together with the US and Great Britain pledged to respect independence, sovereignty and existent borders of Ukraine and assured that “none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine”. 

Putin cannot explain to his citizens the failure of his “blitzkrieg” against Ukraine which is almost 30 times smaller than Russia. That is why he accuses the US in Russia’s decision to start the war with the aim to “move the threat” of NATO away from Russian borders. At the CSTO summit in May 2023, the President of the Russian Federation claimed that North Atlantic Alliance enlargement is “in the foreign policy interests” of the United States. But at the same time, he admits that Russia has no problems with the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO, since there is no direct threat to Russia from NATO enlargement at the expense of these countries.

British historian Jade McGlynn defines memory diplomacy as a form of public diplomacy used by the states to achieve political influence by engaging “their own narratives with historical narratives of a second country,” in order to create “memory alliances”. I sense the task of Russian  “memory diplomacy” in India is breeding the role of Soviet Union in support of India’s independence and industrialisation in the 1950s and 60s. 

Russia-China partnership

But today is different. Today Russia is a strategic partner of China, which promotes development of military capabilities of this state. In 2021, bilateral trade volume between PRC and Russia exceeded $140 billion, which is 25% more than the volume of trade with India for the entire year of 2022 – $35 billion. In 2024, the heads of the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China set the task of bringing the volume of bilateral trade up to $200 billion.

Ambassador of China in Russia Zhang Hanhui in his interview to the Russian news agency TASS has underlined that military and technical cooperation between China and Russia fully reflects the high level of strategic partnership and mutual trust between the two states. During recent years bilateral military and technical cooperation has reached significant results and continues to gradually develop. China attaches great importance to cooperation with Russia in this sphere and will work together with the Russian side to promote military and technical cooperation on a higher level and bigger scale. 

Beijing shows the biggest interest in the development of aircraft construction, the space industry, atomic energy, research of new materials and nanotechnology.

Over the past 20 years, China has bought about $30 billion worth of weapons and military equipment from Russia, including 24 of the latest generation 4++ Su-35 fighters and four divisions of the S-400 “Triumf” air defence system. Russia remains the biggest supplier of D-30 and AL-31F aircraft engines, without which the rearmament and modernization of the Chinese Air Force would be impossible. 

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Russia’s cooperation with China has been focused on such spheres as science and technology as well as production and technology to ensure development of the most challenging for Beijing innovative weapons including anti-aircraft and anti-missile defence, submarines, etc.

Russia and China successfully develop their military relationship through annual meetings of defence ministers and chiefs of staff, command and staff negotiations of various commissions, as well as training of the armed forces. Even under the conditions of waging war in Ukraine, the plan of joint actions between Russia and China has been implemented in full.

Russia helping Pakistan too

Since embargo on arms supply to Pakistan was lifted in 2014, Russia intensified efforts to develop bilateral military-technical cooperation with Islamabad in potential areas of Pakistani interest including large Mi-26 transport helicopters, precision-guided munitions, artillery, air defence, long-range missiles, weapon systems.

After selling military goods to India, Russia immediately negotiate with Pakistan to sell them military equipment in order to keep the balance in the region. These can be MiG-35 fighters, Mi-28 combat helicopters of various modifications, short-range anti-aircraft systems etc. But quality of Russian modern weapons used in Ukraine is evidently losing to the Western one. It pushed Islamabad to look for better solutions. 

Pakistan’s successful contracts for the supply of 30 T-129 helicopters worth $1.6 billion from Turkey and with China for the purchase of eight submarines worth $5 billion cause envy and a sense of lost profit in the stagnant Russian military industry.

Why Russia is a Rogue State today

The term ‘Rogue States’ according to many International Relations scholars refers to a country that is keen to deliberately and purposefully commit transgressions and break international laws and policies that are meant to ensure peace globally. Additionally, such states’ intentions are to pose threat to the security of their countries as well as other countries all over the world. There are certain attributes that make a state to be defined and categorized as a rogue state. These attributes relate to commission of major transgressions which are against the international laws and policies. These are: pursuance of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), actively carrying out or supporting terrorism and terrorism related activities, systematic and severe violation and restriction of accepted international human rights, and repression and abuse of a state’s own citizens. 

Additionally, rogue states are characterized by authoritarian rule, involvement in large-scale criminal activities and pathetic handling and treatment of those who dissent to the political leadership of the state. Generally, rogue states do not play by the rules of international politics.

Modern Russia does not have a political strategy for the future development of the country. Nostalgic for his youth and the Soviet Union, the dictator cannot offer the young generation of Russians anything but the path to the past, which is so clear and dear to him. Young people pose a threat to the Kremlin regime with their pacifism and desire to live in a modern globalist world, free from the fear of imminent war.

The young generation of Russians does not need long and boring Old Testament-style grandfather tales that have no relevance to the problems they face today, not to mention those they will face in the future. They do not want to be cannon fodder for a regime that has been waging continuous wars around the world for the last 24 years and probably the next five years with ambitions until 2036 (according to the current Russian Constitution).

During these years of war, the Russian army and special services lost 3,153 dead and 9,173 wounded in Chechnya, 120 dead in Syria, 67 soldiers were killed during the attack on Georgia and another 162 were wounded. According to information obtained on the basis of the name list of the dead, the war in Ukraine took the lives of 80,000 Russians. In addition, another 170,000 people were injured.

Russia spends about $300 million a day for the war against Ukraine. According to Forbes, direct military spending and price of lost Russian military equipment for 18 months of war (from February 24, 2022 to August 24, 2023) are about $167.3 billion.

Moreover, Russia lost more than $10 billion because of cancelled or delayed armament sales. In total the invasion of Ukraine cost Russia $1.3 trillion, including lost economic growth, which was expected by 2026.

At the same time, a survey by the Russian fund “Public Opinion” showed that 8% of russians do not have enough money even for food, 24% can buy food, but do not have enough money for clothes and shoes, another 32% have money for it, but cannot afford buying large household appliances. Thus, 64% of Russians have no savings at all.

Rosstat (Russian statistics agency) estimated that 14.8 million of Russians live with incomes below the poverty line, which is 10.2% of the total population. But real numbers could be higher as in 2021 Russian government changed the calculation methodology. As a result more than 3 million poor people were “lost” in calculations.

European and American sanctions have severely hit all sectors of the Russian economy. China is trying to compensate for these losses. The Western banks in Russia were replaced by the four largest Chinese credit institutions: Bank of China Ltd., Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., China Construction Bank Corp. and Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. As a result, in 2023, the volume of payments in Chinese currency increased by16% while payments in dollars and euros decreased from 60% to less than 50%. Instead of Visa, Mastercard and American Express payment systems, the Chinese UnionPay entered the financial market of Russia. But Chinese UnionPay clients constantly face refusals of transactions abroad.

In 2023, China bought a record 23 billion cubic meters of gas in Russia, which compensated for only one-eighth of the former export to the European Union in the amount of 180 billion cubic meters. Russian authorities countervail losses caused by the gas supply reduction to foreign markets at the expense of its citizens by increasing prices for the population by 8.5% in 2023 and 7% in 2024.

Russia doesn’t have proper modern technologies of oil production such as hydrowash method, sea production and floating drilling rigs. Because of the absence of alternatives, amount of oil production in Russia will decrease by 30%.

Western airplanes constitute 64% of Russian civil aviation. Today they are deprived of permission to fly to 11 countries of the world. Operator companies are unable to provide aircraft leasing and maintenance, insurance, software updates, etc.

The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) signalized problems with flight safety in Russia in its bulletin, and further reduced the assessment of the effectiveness of the implementation of airworthiness standards in Russia by almost a quarter – down to 77.4%. There is no alternative to Boeing, Airbus, Embraer and Bombardier in Russia.

According to official data, Russia’s automotive industry has experienced the biggest decline in production over the past two years – about 60%. Independent estimates say that car production in May 2022 fell by 96.7% in comparison with May 2021. At the same time, prices rose sharply: by 29.5% for Russian cars and 39.1% for foreign cars.

Falling of ruble rates pushed incomes of Russians far backwards in dollar equivalent. In 2013 the income of the average Russian was $806 per month, in 2014 approximately $715, and in 2023,  $586.

The official inflation rate in Russia in 2023 was 7.4%. However, according to the calculation of the real consumer basket of Russians, which includes food, beverages, detergents, personal hygiene items, cosmetics, medicines and clothes, inflation rate is 23.2%. Since the beginning of the war, real inflation has reached 56.9% (according to the official data – 20%), and the cumulative total for 2019-23 is 103%, compared to the official rate of 41% for the same period. The life of citizens in this country is becoming uncomfortable for the middle class and unbearable for the poorest strata of the population.

Russia bears economic losses that throw it back for decades, it has almost no chance for progress. The Russian government is trying to restore growth rates by increasing production of military goods. The Russian government has allocated 29.5% of all expenditures for 2024 for defence. This is the highest number since the times of the USSR.

But simple mathematical calculations and statistics show that Russia’s economy is miserable. For example, possessing territory many, many times larger than Italy, Russia has only about 85% of the Italian economy. Russian population is about 140 million people. This is less than Germany and France together. Russia failed to defeat Ukraine, which at the time of the invasion was only the 53rd largest economy in the world, behind New Zealand and Peru. 

The escalation of the arms race will inevitably lead to the collapse of Russia, as it happened with the USSR, which lost in this competition to the West.

Clearly understanding these realities, the young generation of Russians is fleeing the country. According to the estimates of independent Russian experts, at least 500,000 to 600,000 of Russians left the country in 2022 and did not come back. In its turn, Forbes reported about 700,000 emigrants per year. The Finnish Institute of International Relations estimates 800,000 of Russian migrants, and the British Ministry of Défense – 1.3 million.

In accordance with the international standards, a population is considered to be old if the share of people aged 65 and older exceeds 7%. At the beginning of 2023, according to Rosstat, the share of the population aged 65 and older in Russia was 16.5%, and this indicator is constantly increasing. Rosstat forecast is even more pessimistic, as it predicts that part of Russians reaching retirement age in 2046 will increase most probably up to 27%. The nation is relentlessly aging.

But Putin doesn’t care – as his main electorate are peers of the aging dictator and it is easier to frighten them with foreign threats than explain the real reasons of internal problems of the country. 

Here we can find the roots of Putin’s myths about the threat from NATO and the United States, the conspiracy delusion about the plot of collective West against Russia, obsessive accusations of ‘Nazism’ in Ukraine in order to justify military aggression against an independent and sovereign state.

Find at least one point that does not correspond to the definition of rogue state in relation to Russia.

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