NDA Seat-Sharing In Bihar: With LJP Split, Will NDA Stick To 2019 Formula For LS Polls 2024?
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NDA Seat-Sharing In Bihar: With the Lok Sabha election dates fast approaching, the NDA in Bihar is inching towards a seat-sharing agreement. If sources are to be believed, the seat-sharing formula between the Samrat Chaudhary-led BJP and the Nitish Kumar-led JD(U) in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections is likely to be on the lines of the one in 2019. The previous polls’ seat-sharing formula was a highly successful one for the National Democratic Alliance, with the bloc falling just one seat short of a clean sweep.
What Was NDA Seat-Sharing Formula For Lok Sabha Elections In Bihar In 2019?
The seat-sharing formula between the BJP and the JD(U) in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections was based on equal division. Both the BJP and Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) agreed on 17 seats each, while the undivided Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), led by the late Ram Vilas Paswan, fielded six candidates.
The Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) won all the 6 seats, the BJP won all its 17 seats, while JD(U) won 16 of its share of 17 seats. The Congress won only 1 seat in Bihar — Kishanganj.
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BJP-Led NDA’s Performance In Bihar In 2019 Lok Sabha Elections
The top three NDA candidates with the highest winning margins were all from BJP — Ashok Kumar Yadav (Madhubani), Giriraj Singh (Begusarai), Ajay Nishad (Muzaffarpur). For the JD(U), the highest margin recorders were Baidyanath Prasad Mahato (Valmiki Nagar), Ramprit Mandal (Jhanjharpur), and Dinesh Chandra Yadav (Madhepura).
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NDA Bihar Tally In 2019 Lok Sabha Elections
| Constituency | Winner | Social Category | Margin | ||
| 1 | Madhubani | Ashok Kumar Yadav | GENERAL | BJP | 454940 |
| 2 | Begusarai | Giriraj Singh | GENERAL | BJP | 422217 |
| 3 | Muzaffarpur | Ajay Nishad | GENERAL | BJP | 409988 |
| 4 | Valmiki Nagar | Baidyanath Prasad Mahato | GENERAL | JD(U) | 354616 |
| 5 | Sheohar | Rama Devi | GENERAL | BJP | 340360 |
| 6 | Jhanjharpur | Ramprit Mandal | GENERAL | JD(U) | 322951 |
| 7 | Madhepura | Dinesh Chandra Yadav | GENERAL | JD(U) | 301527 |
| 8 | Paschim Champaran | DR. SANJAY JAISWAL | GENERAL | BJP | 293906 |
| 9 | Purvi Champaran | RADHA MOHAN SINGH | GENERAL | BJP | 293648 |
| 10 | Gopalganj (SC) | DR. ALOK KUMAR SUMAN | SC | JD(U) | 286434 |
| 11 | Patna Sahib | RAVI SHANKAR PRASAD | GENERAL | BJP | 284657 |
| 12 | Bhagalpur | AJAY KUMAR MANDAL | GENERAL | JD(U) | 277630 |
| 13 | Ujiarpur | Nityanand Rai | GENERAL | BJP | 277278 |
| 14 | Darbhanga | Gopal Jee Thakur | GENERAL | BJP | 267979 |
| 15 | Supaul | Dileshwar Kamait | GENERAL | JD(U) | 266853 |
| 16 | Purnia | SANTOSH KUMAR | GENERAL | JD(U) | 263461 |
| 17 | Nalanda | Kaushlendra Kumar | GENERAL | JD(U) | 256137 |
| 18 | Samastipur (SC) | Ramchandra Paswan | SC | LJP | 251643 |
| 19 | Sitamarhi | Sunil Kumar Pintu | GENERAL | JD(U) | 250539 |
| 20 | Khagaria | Choudhary Mehboob Ali Kaiser | GENERAL | LJP | 248570 |
| 21 | Jamui (SC) | CHIRAG KUMAR PASWAN | SC | LJP | 241049 |
| 22 | Vaishali | Veena Devi (W/o Dinesh Prasad Singh) | GENERAL | LJP | 234584 |
| 23 | Maharajganj | Janardan Singh ‘Sigriwal” | GENERAL | BJP | 230772 |
| 24 | Hajipur (SC) | PASHU PATI KUMAR PARAS | SC | LJP | 205449 |
| 25 | Banka | GIRIDHARI YADAV | GENERAL | JD(U) | 200532 |
| 26 | Munger | RAJIV RANJAN SINGH ALIAS LALAN SINGH | GENERAL | JD(U) | 167937 |
| 27 | Sasaram (SC) | CHHEDI PASWAN | SC | BJP | 165745 |
| 28 | Gaya (SC) | Vijay Kumar | SC | JD(U) | 152426 |
| 29 | Nawada | Chandan Singh | GENERAL | LJP | 148072 |
| 30 | Arrah | R. K. Singh | GENERAL | BJP | 147285 |
| 31 | Saran | Rajiv Pratap Rudy | GENERAL | BJP | 138411 |
| 32 | Araria | PRADEEP KUMAR SINGH | GENERAL | BJP | 137241 |
| 33 | Buxar | Ashwini Kumar Choubey | GENERAL | BJP | 117609 |
| 34 | Siwan | Kavita Singh | GENERAL | JD(U) | 116958 |
| 35 | Karakat | MAHABALI SINGH | GENERAL | JD(U) | 84542 |
| 36 | Aurangabad | SUSHIL KUMAR SINGH | GENERAL | BJP | 70552 |
| 37 | Katihar | DULAL CHANDRA GOSWAMI | GENERAL | JD(U) | 57203 |
| 38 | Pataliputra | RAM KRIPAL YADAV | GENERAL | BJP | 39321 |
| 39 | Jahanabad | CHANDESHWAR PRASAD | GENERAL | JD(U) | 1751 |
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Possible Changes In NDA’s Bihar Seat-Sharing Formula
This time around, the LJP has split into two parties — one led by Ram Vilas Paswan’s son Chirag Paswan and another by the founder’s brother Pashupati Paras. Chirag is now leading the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), while Pashupati Paras is at the helm of the Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party. However, this year, the Jitan Ram Manjhi-led Hindustani Awam Morcha and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Janta Dal are also part of the NDA.
This could lead to a slight change in the seat-sharing formula. If the NDA decides to allot constituencies to the HAM, it is unlikely to be more than 1. If granted a seat, the HAM could ask for the Aurangabad seat, a stronghold of former Bihar CM Jitan Ram Manjhi. The party had fared well against the JD(U) in the region in the 2020 Bihar Assembly polls. However, the seat is currently held by BJP heavyweight Sushil Kumar Singh and the saffron party may not be willing to part with it.
Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Janta Dal is unlikely to be allotted any seat as it was formed only last month and is at odds with Nitish Kumar.
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The LJP Equation In Bihar
The LJP equation is going to be crucial for the NDA in Bihar. The NDA is going to polls for the first time with a divided LJP. The two LJPs will have to agree on a seat-sharing formula if the NDA is to have a smooth ride in Bihar. At present, the Chirag Paswan is the lone Lok Sabha MP in the LJP (Ram Vilas). The RLJP has five sitting MLAs — Veena Devi (Vaishali), Prince Raj (Samastipur), Mehboob Ali Qaisar (Khagaria), Chandan Singh (Nawada), and Pashupati Kumar Paras (Hajipur).
While both parties will vie for the maximum number of seats, it is the Hajipur seat, which would be at the centre of the storm. While Union minister Pashupati Paras is unwilling to give up his seat, Chirag Paswan claims that it is his right to contest the seat as it bears the legacy of his father. Ram Vilas Paswan won the seat 8 times over his long political career. However, Chirag has also kept his options open for the Jamui seat that he represents now. In October last year, Chirag said that he “cannot disappoint the people of Jamui“.
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