Charting A Transformative Era In The Middle East
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Israel-Hamas War: The current political unrest in prominent Arab nations, as well as in Israel, and the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Palestine, are direct consequences of the Arab League (AL) and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) showing indifference towards the establishment of a permanent homeland for the Palestinian people. Despite the United States investing significant diplomatic capital in this direction, starting with the Oslo Accord, the Palestinians have not achieved their goal of an independent state. It is undeniable that the Jewish population, who endured centuries of persecution in Europe, deserved their “promised land”, and the Balfour Declaration of 1917 provided Western authorisation for this. Initially, the plan for the Jewish population in the new land was to coexist with the Palestinians.
However, the establishment of the State of Israel in 1948 was immediately followed by the Nakba, the Palestinian Catastrophe resulting in the death of thousands and the expulsion of tens of thousands from their ancestral homes. These displaced Palestinians sought refuge in a small, 365-square-kilometre area on the Red Sea coast known as Gaza, which had once been a thriving commercial and cultural hub in the Arab world. In the Six-Day War of 1967, Israel captured the West Bank of the Jordan River, including East Jerusalem, from Jordan. Subsequently, King Hussein announced that his country was relinquishing its claim on this territory, designating it as the future homeland for the Palestinians, along with Gaza, with East Jerusalem as its capital.
Gaza had been within Egyptian territory but was seized by Israel during the 1967 war. After 38 years of occupation, Israel eventually withdrew from Gaza. With a strong commitment to promoting democracy in the Middle East, following the fall of Saddam Hussein in Iraq, the George W Bush Administration advocated for Palestinian elections, which were held in January 2005. President Bush and representatives from the Carter Centre, who were present on the ground, verified that the elections were conducted fairly and without significant issues. To the surprise of many, Hamas emerged as the dominant party and sought to establish a government. Despite Hamas participating in the elections as a legitimate political entity, the United States and Western nations considered them a terrorist organisation and imposed strict sanctions on their government. In 2007, Israel designated the Gaza Strip as a hostile entity and imposed a blockade on all land, air, and sea routes to the region.
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Tensions between Hamas and Israel persisted and often escalated into armed conflicts. Some of these conflicts were instigated by Hamas, such as the 2008 war, which resulted from the kidnapping of an Israeli soldier, Gilda Shalit. In other cases, Israel initiated hostilities, as seen in 2012 when they targeted Hamas military chief of staff Ahmed Jabari. The conflict between the two sides continued in subsequent years, including in 2014, 2018, 2021, and 2022. Due to lack of resolution of the Palestinian issue by the international community, both Gaza and the West Bank have experienced a combination of violence and non-violent hardships. Israel has had to remain vigilant against sudden attacks by Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and other militant Palestinian groups that receive varying degrees of support from other countries.
Hamas’ most significant and brutal attack on southern Israel, in which they indiscriminately killed, injured, and terrorised civilians of all ages, kidnapped over 240 people, and caused havoc in the area, can be considered a pivotal event in Israel’s history, similar to the impact of the 9/11 attacks in the United States. In response, Israel had the right and the obligation to secure its citizens, and it sought to secure the release of their hostages. As a result, the initial international response to the Israel Defense Force’s (IDF) bombing campaign in the Gaza Strip was relatively neutral. Even Arab nations did not openly protest, as they had done in previous IDF attacks.
However, when Israel unveiled its strategy to not only eliminate Hamas but also significantly reduce the Palestinian population in Gaza, the Muslim world rallied in support of Gaza’s Palestinians and condemned Israel’s actions. Simultaneously, Western countries began to draw parallels between Hamas and ISIS. President Macron has called for the formation of a global alliance to combat Hamas. Some Indian strategic analysts have drawn comparisons between Hamas attacks and the 26/11 Mumbai attacks. However, it’s important to note that there is a debate over whether Hamas should be labeled as “terrorists” or considered a radical and militant political party. While some Palestinians and certain Arab countries view Hamas as a “resistance force” against an occupying power, the moral correctness of this definition is a subject of debate. Unlike groups like ISIS, Hamas is not primarily focused on spreading its ideology, and it conducts actions in the context of resistance.
The US has given Israel the green light to engage in a conflict with Hamas, resulting in a significant impact on the Palestinian population and internal displacement among Israelis. This ongoing conflict may lead to regional geopolitical shifts that could have global implications. The United States’ influence in the Middle East has declined over the past two decades, with its military and economic power diminishing. The US and its NATO allies face challenges in their military engagements abroad, including a substantial foreign debt.
Furthermore, the dynamics in the Middle East have shifted as Gulf monarchies seek more independent foreign policies and establish defence ties with China. China, while maintaining good economic relations with Israel, advocates for a peaceful resolution of the Gaza conflict and a two-state solution. Russia, mneanwhile, has been perturbed by Israel’s actions, including its support for Ukraine and the presence of Mossad advisers in Kyiv.
This has strained their past close relations, and it is noteworthy that both Russia and China share concerns about the US’s backing of Israel. Indicating a convergence of interests against the US in the context of the Gaza conflict, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping met in Beijing on the same day US President Joe Biden met Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv.
Without A Solution, Middle East Will Become Highly Unstable
Next in line is Iran. It has been strategically marginalised within the Muslim world due to the signing of the Abraham Accords and the proposed connectivity between South Asia and Europe through Sunni Arab countries and Israel. The potential reconciliation between Israel and Saudi Arabia further adds to Iran’s isolation.
Since the end of its war with Iraq, Iran lacks a large combat-ready army. To compensate, they have developed a substantial arsenal of precision-guided missiles and air defence systems. Simultaneously, Iran has nurtured its proxies in various regions, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Kata’ib Hezbollah and Asa’ib Ahal al-Haq in Iraq, and several groups in Syria and Yemen. These militant organisations serve as Iran’s assets. When one of these assets is engaged in a conflict against a superior military force, Iran must maintain its reputation as a reliable partner.
Consequently, Iran has activated these assets with the knowledge of Israel and the US, though they haven’t actively engaged in the conflict until now. Hezbollah, with over 140,000 long-range guided missiles, advanced drones, tanks, and mortars, has opened the northern war front for the IDF. Their leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has announced an escalation of their attacks. The Houthi rebels are also firing long-range missiles at Israel, leading to the deployment of Israeli naval assets in the Mediterranean, with two US warships present. Turkey, a NATO member with a significant military, is prepared to support Hamas. Additionally, Pakistan has promised Erdogan their nuclear warheads in the event of a nuclear attack by Israel.
Despite murmurs in Washington about attacking Iran, it is highly unlikely. Russia and China are expected to provide military support to Iran in different ways, making an attack on Iran improbable.
Lastly, the Gulf countries play a critical role. While most of them, except Qatar, lack sympathy for Hamas, the escalating conflict in Gaza poses a challenge for those with closer ties to Israel. The Gulf monarchs cannot ignore the daily protests against Israel on their streets. Nasrallah’s call for all Muslim states to unite against Israel resonates with the sentiment on Arab streets. Iraqi Shiite groups are increasingly targeting US positions in their country, and Bahrain has recalled its ambassador from Tel Aviv. Jordan, a US ally, has taken further steps by recalling its ambassador from Tel Aviv and asking the Israeli ambassador to stay outside the country until the situation improves. Although Saudi Arabia and the UAE haven’t directly condemned Israeli attacks, they voted in favour of the recent UN General Assembly Resolution on the war.
Both sides in the current conflict understand that the world cannot afford another global war. Nasarullah did not declare a “war against Israel”; his rhetoric mainly targeted the US and Israel in favor of a ceasefire. The US and Israel cannot afford to engage with Hezbollah, Hamas fighters in Lebanon, the Houthis, and militants in Iraq and Syria with limited military resources and few allies willing to join the conflict. The US is discussing plans for “the day after”, and for the first time during the war, Blinken mentioned a two-state solution for lasting peace for both Israelis and Palestinians. However, Arab public opinion is less likely to follow US directives. We’ll have to see whether this solution unfolds based on a “US road map” or if regional powers, no longer under US dominance, propose their own plan. One thing is certain: without a solution, the entire Middle East region will become highly unstable, impacting the global economy and potentially drawing in other countries. Saudi Arabia and Egypt, two regional heavyweights, have to burn midnight oil to stabilise the situation.
The author is a retired IFS officer and former Indian Ambassador and High Commissioner who served extensively in the Gulf, West Asia, and Eastern & Southern African countries.
[Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs, and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs, and views of ABP News Network Pvt Ltd.]
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