Annather problem: AIADMK walking out of NDA points to a bigger electoral challenge for BJP in the south

AIADMK’s exit from BJP-led NDA comes after a year-long sniping between state BJP and the Tamil party. AIADMK had accused TN’s BJP unit of attempting to expand at its ally’s expense. State BJP chief Annamalai also drew AIADMK fire for what the latter claimed were slanted remarks against former CMs Jayalalithaa and Annadurai. Add the latest differences over Sanatan Dharma. Of course, since AIADMK has no complaint against BJP’s central leadership, the move may also be a bargaining tactic. But still, a key southern ally’s exit at a time BJP is looking to shore up NDA is bound to be of concern.

In the five southern states, there are no parties in NDA that, as of now, seem to be in a strong position. Even in Karnataka, the only one where BJP commands a presence and 25 MPs, the state unit is in disarray – there is no leader of opposition in the assembly over four months after BJP lost the state poll. Its recent tie-up with JDS came at a time when the latter was nearly wiped out in the assembly election. In Telangana, BJP’s earlier momentum seems to have fizzled out. In Andhra and Kerala, it remains a minor player.

Given that much of the south vote has remained unyielding through nine years of BJP’s two terms at the Centre, the party must again lean on and protect its formidable bases in the north and west. No easy ask here either, despite the advantage the party enjoys from Modi’s formidable campaign presence. In UP, MP, Rajasthan, Haryana, Himachal, Gujarat and Maharashtra, BJP has near maximum or handsome electoral returns. Should the south prove disappointing, the north and the west really will have to deliver for BJP.

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